Future maritime dynamic unlikely to support US ability to assert freedom of navigation upside of UNCLOS

It is myopic for the United States to gamble that its extant approach of FON assertions and diplomatic protests will be an adequate near and long-term course of action, especially in an era of increasing national security interconnectedness. Under the geopolitical conditions prevalent during the last fifteen years, the United States may well have been better postured to leverage its significant political, economic, and military influence in support of its maritime security objectives than it will be in the coming twenty five years. While UNCLOS critics appear content to assume that staying the current course of UNCLOS abstention for the next twenty-five years is unlikely to result in adverse impact, such a sanguine assumption ought to be regarded with an "all else equal" asterisk. While the aforementioned relative advantage has clearly not evaporated, the current trend toward its erosion appears to portend that "all else" will likely not be equal going forward. Given that the dynamics of political and customary international legal norm development typically include interrelated, gradual incubation periods, as well as discernable "tipping points," a more exacting predictive model is appropriate. This is especially so given the potential that significantly increased political, economic, and military costs could attend sustaining current access levels to key regional sea lines of communication in the future. As Professor Kraska posits, "The strategic, operational and political 'landscapes' of the sea have changed." seen from the assessments of some among the Chinese naval establishment in 1994, the year UNCLOS entered into force for member states, he is not alone in this view.