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The authors argue that the Trump Administration's suspension of FONOPs, presumably to curry favor with the Chinese over North Korea or trade, is a bad bargain for the U.S. as it will not incentivize China to cooperate and could destabilize relations in the long run.
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The U.S. Coast Guard has begun work to design and buy three heavy and three medium polar icebreakers, but the service reserves the right to increase the size of the program or even add offensive weapons to them if needed to respond to a rapidly changing Arctic environment, the commandant said.
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The author argues that the Trump administration's pause on Freedom of Navigation operations in the South China Sea to gain China's cooperation on North Korea is the right idea for the wrong reasons and proposes using this pause to put in place a more durable bilateral agreement.
[ More ]As Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson heads to Alaska on Wednesday for talks on Arctic issues, he finds himself in climate policy limbo, preparing for a meeting at which global warming will be front and center yet representing an administration that is still on the fence about fighting it.
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The author cautions that while the U.S. leadership role on the Arctic council may be ending, the U.S. should still stay engaged in the Arctic because "how countries respond to an opening ocean will determine whether it remains a zone of peace, or becomes an area of conflict."
[ More ]The commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard issued a stark warning on Wednesday that Russia was leagues ahead of Washington in the Arctic. And while the warming Arctic opens up, the United States could be caught flat-footed while other geopolitical rivals swiftly step in.
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The Trump Administration's reliance on China for assistance with containing North Korea has led to a dramatic reduction in FONOPs in the disputed South China Seas to contest China's claims and ensure freedom of navigation.
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A new report from Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme suggests that the Arctic may be ice-free in summer within twenty years. The 90 authors of the rigorously peer-reviewed AMAP report state, “Extrapolations of recent observed data suggest a largely ice-free summer ocean by the late 2030s, which is earlier than projected by most climate models.”
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An increase in aggressive maritime behavior from the Russian Navy calls for a renewed committment to open communications and adherence to the maritime rule of law to avoid incidents escalating.
[ More ]The U.S. is closely watching the Russian buildup in the Arctic, the biggest since the fall of the USSR with Russia bolstering its fleet of nuclear-fueled icebreakers, reopening abandoned Soviet military bases and building a string of new ones.
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